With an intensifying battle with terror in the tribal
regions, a severe winter made worse by an equally severe energy crisis, and a
weakened government plagued by corruption and unwilling to embrace
transparency, the public has had enough
By Naveed Ahmad
in Islamabad
for ISN Security Watch
While the war on terror rages in Pakistan’s tribal regions,
with attacks claiming more and more civilian lives and US drone strikes
complicating matters further, the country faces a multitude of other problems,
including a catastrophic energy crisis in the midst of a severe winter, a dire
financial crunch, and a weakened government whose president is facing an
insurmountable credibility conundrum.
Recent developments in the country’s ongoing corruption
crisis are now adding to the public’s quickly growing disillusionment with the
government led by President Asif Ali Zardari, who is proving to be little, if
any, improvement over his much-maligned predecessor, Pervez Musharraf.
In a 17 December decision, the Pakistani Supreme Court
reversed a controversial corruption amnesty law put in place under the regime
of former military president Musharraf, clearing the way for massive corruption
and criminal cases against top politicians, bureaucrats and generals.
Today, around 8,500 corruption and other criminal cases against
high-profile figures, including Zardari, are awaiting hearing.
Zardari is alleged to have misappropriated a total of Rs
24.14 billion ($1.5 billion) along with his late wife, former prime minister
Benazir Bhutto, while another 246 politicians and bureaucrats are alleged to
have embezzled an estimated Rs 25.18 billion ($1.6 billion).
The Pakistani interior and defense ministers, along with the
ambassadors to the US and
the UK ,
are also facing serious corruption charges.
“The accused may even be jailed should the executive
belatedly decide to implement the apex court decision in letter and spirit,”
Ahmer Bilal Soofi, a senior lawyer based in Lahore , told ISN Security Watch.
In its most recent survey, Transparency International ranks Pakistan as the
42nd most corrupt state in the world, saying that some $6 billion was embezzled
during the last year of Benazir Bhutto’s Peoples’ Party-led government.
And Zardari, in what appears to be an attempt to keep the
Supreme Court’s recent anti-corruption move from being implemented, has
launched a pressure campaign against one of the PPP’s key rivals, the Nawaz
League, headed by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
“Zardari is doing no favor to the country or democratic
system by attacking a provincial government only to silence the rival
opposition party from seeking implementation of the Supreme Court
decision of opening of corruption cases,” Ghulam Mustafa Khar, a veteran
politician and former Punjab governor, told ISN Security Watch.
So far, quiet US shuttle diplomacy through
Richard Holbrooke, President Barack Obama’s special envoy in
Pakistan-Afghanistan, is being credited for keeping the temper of the Nawaz
camp from flaring. However, a recent trip to Lahore , where Zardari verbally attacked the provincial
governor, Shahbaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif’s brother, will certainly be viewed as
an act of aggression by the Nawaz League, and is likely to compound the
political crisis.
Fishing for handouts
In the meantime, Zardari is using Islamabad ’s financial woes to make a case for
a new ‘Marshall Plan’ to help the country boost its efforts in the war on
terror.
“We have to persuade the world to give us the resources to
take on the monster of terrorism,” Zardari told an audience at the Governor’s House in Lahore on Monday.
But this seems unlikely.
“Who can agree to back a Marshall Plan-style scheme for Pakistan if
corruption-tainted politicians continue to hold power with no regard for
transparency and accountability,” an EU diplomat told ISN Security Watch on
condition of anonymity.
Undoubtedly, more civilians died in terrorist acts in Pakistan during 2009 than in Afghanistan . A
careful compilation of news reports suggests that over 3,204 people were killed
in at least 90 terror attacks in Pakistan . By comparison, the New
York Times quoted a UN report that put terrorism-related civilian deaths in Afghanistan at
2,412.
Ironically, the mounting human and financial costs of the
war on terror in Pakistan
have offered the Zardari government an opportunity to seek more relief
assistance. However, some independent analysts believe that the government is
overstating the terror threat in an attempt to hide its administrative weakness
and corruption and to seek increased western support.
“Despite inadequate and old-fashioned security arrangements
in the capital Islamabad
and elsewhere, terrorists do not have the ability to launch big attacks in
urban centers thanks to successful military operations,” security analyst
Rashid Mafzool Zaka told ISN Security Watch.
That said, a massive military operation in any town or
village in turn triggers a serious displacement of the local population, with
over 2.5 million internally displaced during last year’s Malakand operation,
creating additional security concerns.
As the cost of war escalates beyond calculations for Pakistan , the
spillover of displaced families from the troubled tribal region seems never
ending. Though most of the 2.5 million IDPs from Malakand operations may have
returned to their homes, over 1.2 million newly displaced have arrived from the
Waziristans, Orkazai agency and other areas amid severe winter conditions.
“The military operations not only eliminate militants and
their infrastructure, but also destroy standing crops, irrigation system and
even roads [...]. There are no businesses left intact in Waziristan,”
Rustam Mahsud, a paramedic in a Mansehra hospital, 150 kilometers from
Islamabad, told ISN Security Watch, adding that it was not only the worst
winter in some time, but that poverty was at a all-time high.
While there is no official financial support system for those affected by terrorist attacks and military operations, the resolve of the tribal peoples is further tested by missile attacks from US drones.
A drone attack on Sunday was the 17th such attack in the
past 10 days. In that strike in the Shaktu area of South
Waziristan , according to Pakistani officials, 15 to 20 people were
killed. Pakistan’s Daily Times reported that 20 Taliban, including
three foreigners, were killed and that the death toll could rise as the
militants were digging bodies out of the demolished compound.
The primary target of the recent attacks, Taliban leader
Hakimullah Mahsud, appears to have evaded death. A recent audio tape features
what is allegedly the Taliban’s leader’s voice in an attempt to prove that he
has not been eliminated. Hakimullah Mahsud replaced Baitullah Mahsud who was
killed in a US
drone attack last summer.
The government typically remains mute on such attacks,
refusing to either confirm the killing of alleged terrorists or to protest the
use of US drones on its sovereign territory. Many analysts believe that
the government privately condones the strikes, but cannot afford to do so
publicly, as anger against the Zardari-led coalition continues to mount.
Opposition parties accuse the PPP-led government of towing
the pro-US line, much the same way that Musharraf did.
Credibility crisis
With the implementation of the Supreme Court corruption
ruling shelved for the time being, and the rift between the government and the
military growing, Zardari and his coalition are quickly losing credibility both
at home and abroad. And at home, disillusionment is running dangerously high.
“The common man is faced with a serious economic and
resource crunch, with the worst shortages of food, energy and employment over
the last two years,” economist Irfan Shahzad told ISN Security Watch.
Indeed, scores of Gallup
polls reflect public demand for the removal of ministers and other government
functionaries facing corruption charges. Though Zardari has immunity from
prosecution under the constitution, public calls for him to resign are at an
all-time high.
Submission to the Supreme Court decision would signify
respect for the rule of law and transparency, and allow Zardari to regain some
lost credibility among the public. But, much like his predecessor, he will not
budge.
The severe instability of the government and Zardari’s
inability to regain lost credibility amid a costly and intensifying war against
terror will surely spell disaster for the country’s 170 million people.
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